New Ceres Report: Investment managers still lagging in response to climate change risks and opportunities
Nearly half of money managers surveyed ignoring climate risks, considering it ‘non-material’
Although there is overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is underway and governments are imposing regulations to curb greenhouse gases, the vast majority of the world’s largest investment managers are not factoring climate-related trends into their short- and long-term investment decision-making, the result being significant ‘hidden risks’ in the trillions of dollars of investment portfolios they are managing.
This is the key conclusion of a new Ceres report released today that surveyed leading assets managers in 2009 on their responses to the increasing business risks and investment opportunities associated with climate change. The survey was sent to the world’s 500 largest asset managers, according to the Pensions & Investments Global 500 Survey.
“Despite the growing recognition of the far-reaching impacts climate change will have on the global economy, only a handful of asset managers are integrating climate risks and opportunities throughout their investment practices,” said Mindy S. Lubber, president of Ceres and director of the Investor Network on Climate Risk. “These findings make clear that the investment community is overly focused on short-term performance and ignoring longer-term business trends such as climate-related risks and opportunities. The recent subprime mortgage meltdown is a painful reminder of the fallout for investors who ignored ‘hidden’ long-term risks.”
“The survey results, collected in early 2009, highlight the lag of major financial markets to deal with climate change, even as strong state and national climate policies are being adopted globally,” Lubber said.
The survey was done at the request of the Investor Network on Climate Risk, a network of 80-plus pension funds and other institutional investors who rely on asset managers to manage their investment portfolios. Eighty-four asset managers managing $8.6 trillion in assets completed the survey, including 66 in the P&I top 500 list and 18 others who responded at the specific request of INCR client members.
The report shows that while a large number of asset managers are in the preliminary stages of including climate risks in their due diligence, only a small percentage are considering a broad range of climate risks, such as regulatory, litigation, physical and competitive risks, as part of their due diligence process for evaluating companies. Nearly half of the respondents – 44 percent – said they do not consider climate risks at all because they do not believe that climate change is financially ‘material’ to investment decision-making.
A key problem identified in the report is that asset owners, such as pension funds and other institutional investors, are either not asking their asset managers to include climate risk and opportunity analysis, or are only beginning to raise the subject. This is hugely important because nearly half of the respondents – nearly 49 percent – said they did not analyze climate risks because their investor clients did not ask them to. Another shortcoming identified in the report: incentive structures and benchmarks that asset owners use for evaluating asset managers are heavily weighted towards short-term performance focusing primarily on quarterly returns where climate risks are far less likely to show up.
The report recommends that institutional investors push harder to get asset managers, consultants and others in the investment community to boost their attention to climate-related issues. The reports suggests that this be done through requests for proposals (RFPs), other hiring procedures or as part of managers’ performance reviews. Today, in an effort to do just this, a leading INCR member, the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS), announced it will engage its active equity managers on their climate risk analysis. Specifically, CalSTRS will highlight the need for each manager to have expertise in climate change and other sustainable investment analysis and to adapt their corporate governance voting practices to address climate risks.
“As a long-term investor, CalSTRS wants to invest in well-managed companies that can address the physical risks of climate change and adapt to the changing regulatory and market realities of a carbon-constrained economy,” said Jack Ehnes, chief executive officer of CalSTRS, the nation’s second largest public pension fund, with more than $130 billion of assets under management. “Our asset managers need to ask the right questions and critically evaluate how companies are positioned so that we’re sure that our investments will produce outstanding risk-adjusted returns for our members.”
The report, “Investors Analyze Climate Risks and Opportunities: A Survey of Asset Manager Practices,” highlights a handful of asset managers – MFS Management and F&C Management Ltd., among those – that are integrating climate risks and opportunities throughout their investment practices, including asset allocation, portfolio valuation and overall due diligence. “Like companies that are rethinking and retooling their business strategies in response to climate change, these asset managers are positioning themselves to capture the opportunities and understand and manage the risks of climate change across their portfolios,” the report said.
“To achieve the climate change goals necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change, companies will need to reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions and develop products and solutions to help the world shift onto a low-carbon growth path,” said Alexis Krajeski, associate director of Governance & Sustainable Investment at F&C Management Limited. “As long-term global investors, we want to invest in companies at the forefront of that change and view those lagging behind with caution. To make these assessments, we have developed requisite expertise and processes to incorporate climate-related risks into our investment decision-making. In time, we believe such enlightened investment thinking will lead to better investment performance and support the growing demand we see from clients.”
Other report highlights include:
- Nearly three-quarters of asset managers do not expressly consider climate risks in their overall due diligence.
- Firms offering “green” investment opportunities are more likely to analyze climate risks for all their investments than their traditional counterparts.
- Half of all asset managers believe that some sectors have significant exposure to climate risks, yet nearly half of those do not conduct climate risks analysis in their due diligence process.
- Less than one-third of asset managers incorporate climate risk into their corporate governance analysis. Even in sectors where asset managers believe that climate risk may be important, three-quarters have not changed their analysis of governance to include that risk.
- Fewer than one-third of asset managers have proxy voting policies for scrutinizing climate-related shareholder resolutions filed with companies.
Download a copy of the full survey report here: http://www.ceres.org/
Source: Ceres, Boston, MA
NASA to spotlight shrinking Arctic Sea ice and unprecedented glacier study at Copenhagen
NASA will take its Earth science research and educational programs before a world-wide audience Dec. 7-18 during the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference in Copenhagen, Denmark. NASA is one of several U.S. government agencies supporting the first-ever U.S. Center, an outreach initiative housed in Copenhagen’s Bella Conference Center.
Organized by the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. Center will host more than 60 events during the conference. The center’s meeting room is a 100-seat auditorium where U.S. and international leaders in the fight against climate change will headline presentations on a wide range of critical initiatives, policies, and scientific research. The center’s reception room serves as a welcome area where visitors can learn more about U.S. climate actions and programs.
The reception room will feature displays and videos using data from U.S. satellites, including NASA’s fleet of Earth-observing research spacecraft. Some of this imagery will be shown on the “Science On a Sphere” projection system, a six-foot, computer-driven globe that displays animated images of the Earth’s land, oceans, and atmosphere. NASA scientists also will be on hand to discuss agency research and programs with visitors.
The U.S. Center, which is open from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time daily, is located in Hall C5 of the Bella Conference Center. NASA is sponsoring the following presentations during the Copenhagen conference:
State of the Science: Earth’s Changing Polar Ice Cover
The presentation will feature the latest observations and research findings on shrinking Arctic sea ice and the rapidly changing ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Speaker: Waleed Abdalati, University of Colorado (Dec. 7, meeting room).
Climate Change Impacts on Civilizations: Lessons from Space Archaeology
NASA is pioneering the use of satellite observations to read the clues of how ancient civilizations reacted to changes in climate. Speakers: Tom Sever, University of Alabama; Ron Blom, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (Dec. 7, meeting room).
“Extreme Ice” Multimedia Presentation
See images from the most wide-ranging glacier study ever conducted using ground-based, real-time photography. Speaker: James Balog, Extreme Ice Survey (Dec. 7, meeting room; Dec. 9 and 16, reception room).
Student Climate Research Campaign
This is a showcase of research projects by secondary school students from around the world conducted through the NASA-sponsored Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) program. Speaker: Donna Charlevoix, University of Colorado (Dec. 8, reception room).
International Global Climate Change Observation from Space
NASA plays a leadership role in the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites. The committee’s international member agencies operate and plan missions to measure critical components of climate change. Speakers: Jack Kaye, NASA’s Earth Science Division; Makoto Kajii, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (Dec. 11, meeting room).
The World’s Forests as Carbon Sinks and Sources
This presentation will feature the latest scientific knowledge on how forests absorb and release carbon, and how human activities have changed that balance. Speaker: Jeffery Masek, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (Dec. 11, meeting room).
Many of the meeting room events will be webcast live on the State Department conference Web site. For a complete schedule of events, visit: http://cop15.state.gov/
Regular updates on events during the conference will be posted at: http://www.facebook.com/usdos.cop15
Source: NASA
Experts examine possible links between climate change and infectious disease transmission
ASTMH Symposium Considers Evidence of Effects of Climate Change on Climate-Sensitive Diseases
An emerging body of evidence suggests that the changing global climate is already affecting infectious disease transmission patterns. As noted in a symposium at the 58th annual meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH), such changes are expected to have a profound impact on global public health.
“There is concrete evidence that the global climate is changing, and these changes are expected to greatly impact human health as surface temperatures rise, agricultural belts shift, and extreme weather events become more commonplace,” observed Mary H. Hayden, Ph.D. of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, CO. “Although most scientists agree that climate change is underway, the role it plays in infectious disease transmission is still in contention. The evidence presented today suggests that climate change will exacerbate the challenges of controlling infectious diseases in the developing world.”
The aim of the symposium, “Changing the Climate: A Data-Driven Discussion About Climate,” was to address the use, utility, and limitations of weather and climate models toward a goal of providing data-driven evidence of the links between weather, climate, specific pathogens and ultimately, human health. The symposium included several evidence-based presentations by speakers from the US Centers Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Columbia University’s International Research Institute on the established effects of climate variability/change on specific climate-sensitive diseases such as meningitis, malaria, plague and other vector-borne bacterial pathogens.
“Climate change is expected to impact global health through a variety of factors including greater heat stress, air pollution, respiratory disease exacerbation, and changes in the geographic distribution of vector-, food- and water-borne disease,” commented Dr. Hayden, who is one of the three (Dr. Emily Zielinski-Gutierrez (CDC) and Dr. George Luber (CDC)) program coordinators of a joint NCAR/US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention postdoctoral fellowship combining public health applications and climate science. “The complexity of such influences requires that the next generation of climate and health scientists undergo training to ensure that they can address climate-related public health challenges. Such preparation will be critical as the population of at-risk individuals continues to grow.”
“We are moving into the age of ‘decision-making’ with regard to climate change after decades of focusing on reducing uncertainties in attribution and prediction,” added NCAR Director Eric J. Barron, Ph.D., who discussed the potential use of available weather and climate models in health forecasting. “Health has huge potential and should be first in line for greater investment to improve the decision-making process because of its clear ties to weather and climate. Whereas the medical community has tended to respond in a ‘point-of-service’ manner – reacting to incoming cases with almost no discipline of forecasting – health/climate forecasting has real potential if we can design monitoring algorithms or a robust predictive capability.”
“The changing climate will likely bring infectious diseases to the forefront of the public health consciousness in the years and decades to come,” said Thomas Wellems, MD, Ph.D., president of ASTMH. “We salute the NCAR and its research scientists for drawing attention to this growing challenge, which can only be met through concerted effort by the global community.”
Source: The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Healthy oceans can help save us from climate change
International coalition advances marine conservation as part of the solution to climate change
A large international coalition today urged the United States to support marine conservation options that will help mitigate climate change.
The ‘Blue Climate Coalition,’ comprised of sixty-six conservation groups and interests and over 150 marine scientists and professionals, from 33 countries, issued communications addressed to President Obama and the United States Senate.
Together, the coalition letters request the option for marine conservation solutions to climate change to be considered in national climate change legislation and international climate change treaties, and support for marine science research that further explores this concept.
Eminent oceanographer and conservationist, Dr. Sylvia Earle, endorsed the letters as the first scientist to sign-on. In her latest book, ‘The World Is Blue,’ Earle reveals how dangerous oceanic change threatens the very existence of life on Earth and argues for renewable strategies that safeguard the natural systems that sustain us.
News of the coalition’s effort made its way to Hollywood, and to the notice of Gilles Marini, most recently of ‘Sex and the City’ and ‘Dancing With the Stars.’ Gilles signed the letters as a supporter of healthy oceans.
Philippe, Jr., and Alexandra Cousteau, grandchildren of Jacques-Yves Cousteau, signed-on, representing their respective conservation organizations EchoEarth International and Blue Legacy International.
A wide range of interests were represented in the coalition letters: environmental conservation, climate change education and advocacy, ecosystem restoration, the dive industry, ecotourism and sustainable travel, carbon offsetting, fishing, and scientific research.
Scientific Backing
The coalition’s message is supported by reports released recently by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). UNEP’s ‘Blue Carbon’ report highlights the carbon storage potential of coastal and marine ecosystems, such as mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, and saltwater marsh lands.
The UNEP report found that the restoration of coastal and marine ecosystems and a reduction in the clearcutting of tropical forests could mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions by up to 25%.
The IUCN report, titled ‘The Ocean and Climate Change,’ finds that failure to recognize the ocean in climate change discussions will have profound consequences for humanity. The report also recommends for additional research to quantify the carbon value of ocean ecosystems. This recommendation is echoed in the coalition letters, to ensure full scientific backing any future natural ocean carbon policies.
“Utilizing the natural carbon functions of both the green and blue biospheres of our planet is an option that we simply cannot afford to ignore if we are serious about tackling climate change and making the transition to a sustainable low-carbon economy,” said Mark J. Spalding, President of The Ocean Foundation and signatory to the coalition letters.
The Urgency of Action
“The United States will play a crucial role in next month’s climate change discussions in Copenhagen,” said Steven J. Lutz, Executive Director of Blue Climate Solutions, the group that organized the letters. “We are asking the United States to show global leadership by advancing solutions for climate change that involve coastal and marine conservation. Many U.S. federal and state agencies are already pursuing actions that could be considered climate mitigation, such as the restoration of coastal and estuarine habitats. These actions need to be continued and encouraged.”
Recognizing the carbon value of healthy coastal and marine ecosystems may be significant for achieving consensus at the Copenhagen negotiations. The health of coastal ocean ecosystems is a critical issue for many developing countries, especially small island developing states. The need to restore the ocean’s natural carbon function could help direct billions of dollars towards conservation efforts, while simultaneously supporting local economies and countering the threat of climate change throughout the globe.
Economic stimulus associated with restoring the ocean’s natural carbon function include funding and investment for activities such as improving water quality, ecosystem restoration, coastal surveying, and the innovation of new environmental monitoring and restoration technologies.
“Restoring the ocean’s natural ocean carbon function is proposed as an alternative to potentially harmful ocean geo-engineering schemes recently discussed in Congress,” said Lutz. “Restoration activities that naturally fix carbon in to forms other than dissolved carbon will also not increase ocean acidification.”
Environmental co-benefits associated with natural ocean carbon solutions include renewed and sustainable fisheries, the conservation of endangered marine species and birds, and the restoration of certain coastal ecosystems. Mangrove forests are considered essential habitat for many fish species, and healthy seagrass meadows are indispensable for endangered sea turtles and manatees.
“Sea turtle hatchlings need healthy coastal and marine ecosystems in order to survive,” said Lutz. “It just so happens that we also need the same healthy ocean ecosystems to survive on this blue planet.”
Source: Blue Climate Coalition
European and US Cities sign Stockholm Appeal urging world cooperation at COP15
The mayors of the largest cities in Europe and the United States have co-authored a mutual appeal, ‘The Stockholm Appeal on Climate Change’. The appeal manifests the signatories’ desire for the COP15 meeting in Copenhagen to result in an international climate change agreement.
The Mayor of Stockholm, Sten Nordin, initiated the cooperation between the mayors, represented by EUROCITIES and the United States Conference of Mayors (USCM). The appeal complements the ambitions of the Swedish government, which is currently holding the Presidency of the European Union.
The Stockholm Appeal provides a powerful statement of intent to the national governments in the run-up to COP15. By stating the cities’ mutual climate protection and sustainability aspirations, the appeal aspires to serve as further incentive for the heads of state at COP15 to reach an agreement.
“We know it is possible to combine economic growth with strong environmental measures. Our cities are putting into practice many innovative and effective strategies to protect the environment. With our strength, knowledge, experience and successes at the local level, the local governments of our cities play a crucial role in climate protection. Our citizens and cities will help implement the agreement signed by government officials at COP15,” says Sten Nordin, Mayor of Stockholm.
In the UK, Manchester City Council leader Sir Richard Leese supports the Stockholm Appeal on Climate Change.
“Our view in Manchester is that a low carbon future is in everybody’s interest. Measures to develop future prosperity must now be inextricably linked to environmental actions. We also owe a responsibility to the rest of the world, particularly the most under-developed parts, to take a lead in tackling climate change.”
“A report we commissioned last year stated the Manchester region would lose GBP21 billion if we failed to meet the challenges and opportunities presented by climate change. I know that many other cities across Europe and in the US have come to similar conclusions,” Sir Richard continues.
The Stockholm Appeal will be officially presented on 27 November at the EUROCITIES 2009 Stockholm conference. The appeal will be handed over by Sten Nordin, the Mayor of Stockholm, and representatives of the Presidency of EUROCITIES and the Presidency of the USCM, to representatives of the Swedish Presidency of the European Union and the Obama Administration.
“With the Stockholm Appeal on Climate Change, we urge the decision-makers at COP15 to sign the agreement in December, and to use this opportunity for real change. We need the legislation and economic means to put your words into action,” says Sten Nordin, Mayor of Stockholm.
Sir Richard Leese adds: “The decisions to be made in Copenhagen will have an impact on everyone, at a global, national and local level. For that reason, I urge leaders at the summit to seize this critical opportunity to secure a binding agreement that sets ambitious targets for reducing global emissions, while also providing resources to developing countries.”
“The battle against climate change will be won or lost in the cities of Europe, where 80 percent of European citizens live. City governments are best placed to find local solutions to this global challenge. Not only are cities leading by example but they are also closest to the citizens and businesses that need to use our planet’s resources more efficiently,” says Jozias von Aartsen, Mayor of The Hague and President of EUROCITIES.
“U.S. mayors proudly stand with our European counterparts in asking international recognition of the role of local leaders in climate protection. At the forefront of creative strategies, U.S. mayors have forced our national government to act to combat climate change. To date, one thousand mayors have signed the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, pledging to meet or beat Kyoto goals. Mayoral leadership is a major impetus in climate protection,” says Greg Nickels, Mayor of Seattle and President of USCM.
The appeal refers to the EUROCITIES Declaration on Climate Change, the USCM Climate Protection Agreement and the Local Government Climate Roadmap, expressing the common position of networks of local authorities from all continents.
UK cities supporting the Local Government Climate Roadmap referred to in the Stockholm Appeal on Climate Change include London, Manchester, Birmingham, Bristol, Liverpool, Newcastle-Gateshead, Nottingham and Sunderland.
More about EUROCITIES work on climate change: http://www.eurocities.eu/include/lib/sql_news_card.php?newsID=1430
More about the US Conference of Mayors’ Climate Protection Agreement: http://www.usmayors.org/climateprotection/agreement.htm
Source: City of Stockholm, EUROCITIES, and United States Conference of Mayors
Only five States have plans to address the Health Impact of Climate Change, new report finds
Trust for America’s Health (TFAH) released a new report that finds only five states have published a strategic climate change plan that includes a public health response. This includes planning for health challenges and emergencies expected to develop from natural disasters, pollution, and infectious diseases as temperatures and sea levels rise.
The Health Problems Heat Up: Climate Change and the Public’s Health report examines U.S. planning for changing health threats posed by climate change, such as heat-related sickness, respiratory infections, natural disasters, changes to the food supply, and infectious diseases carried by insects.
“The changing environment has serious ramifications for our health,” said Jeff Levi, PhD, Executive Director of TFAH. “In the near future, more extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and worsening air quality mean we’ll see an upswing in climate-related illnesses and injuries. As countries around the world work to address climate change, federal, state, and local governments around the United States need to ramp up activities to protect people from the health harms it poses.”
“States are already overwhelmed by existing public health responsibilities, so we face a serious challenge as we see these new climate change related problems on the horizon. States and communities will need more resources to effectively plan and prepare for them,” Levi continued.
The five states with public health response plans included in their larger climate change plans are California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Washington. Twenty-eight states have published strategic climate change plans that do not include a public health response, and seventeen states and the District of Columbia have not published a strategic climate change plan.
Other key findings from the report include that:
– Only 12 states have established climate change commissions that include a representative from the state’s public health department;
– Twenty-two states and New York City have received grants from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for Environmental
Health Tracking, to track connections between health problems and the environment;
– Thirty-three states have received CDC funds for state asthma control programs; and
– Every state except Alaska has received funds to track diseases spread through mosquitoes and other insects.
According to Health Problems Heat Up, communities across the United States are at risk for negative health effects associated with climate change. Urban communities face natural disasters, such as floods and heat waves. Rural communities may be threatened by food insecurity due to shifts in crop growing conditions, reduced water resources, heat, and storm damage. Coastal and low-lying areas could see an increase in floods, hurricanes, and tropical storms. Mountain regions are at risk of increasing heat and vector-borne diseases due to melting of mountain glaciers and changes in snow melt. And communities around the country could experience new insect-based infectious diseases that used to only be affiliated with high temperature regions.
“The health threats from climate change are very real,” said Phyllis Cuttino, Director of the Pew Environment Group’s U.S. Global Warming Campaign. “That is one more reason the U.S. Congress should enact legislation to address global warming. Passing climate legislation that includes provisions to help states prepare for and respond to the projected health impacts of climate change is a measure in helping to protect the long term health of the American people. The sooner we act on global warming the healthier we’ll all be.”
The report contains a series of policy recommendations, including:
– Congress should provide funding for state and local health departments to conduct needs assessments and strategic planning for public health
considerations of climate change;
– The White House and the federal interagency working group on climate change should take into account the potential health implications of
policies and programs under consideration;
– Congress should increase support for tracking of environmental effects on health and research into health effects of climate change;
– CDC should set national guidelines and measures for core public health functions related to climate change, and in exchange for federal funding for climate change planning and response, CDC should require states and localities to report the findings to both the public and the federal government;
– All state and local health departments should include public health considerations as part of climate change plans, including conducting needs assessments, developing strategic plans, and creating public education campaigns; and
– Special efforts must be made to address the impact of climate change on at-risk and vulnerable communities.
The U.S. Senate is in the process of developing comprehensive climate change legislation. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a climate change bill that includes language to direct the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services to create a national strategic action plan to assist health professionals to prepare for and respond to the impact of climate change on public health in the United States and globally. The House bill also includes a Climate Change Health Protection and Promotion Fund to provide the funds needed to develop and carry out the strategic plan.
The full Health Problems Heat Up report, including state-specific information, is available on TFAH’s web site www.healthyamericans.org. The report was supported by The Pew Environment Group, which is the conservation arm of The Pew Charitable Trusts.
Trust for America’s Health is a non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to saving lives by protecting the health of every community and working to make disease prevention a national priority.
Source: Trust for America’s Health
Cutting non-CO2 pollutants can delay abrupt climate change, solve Fast Half of climate problem
Reducing non-CO2 climate change agents such as black carbon soot, tropospheric ozone, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), as well as expanding bio-sequestration through biochar production, can forestall fast approaching abrupt climate changes, according to Nobel Laureate Dr. Mario Molina and co-authors in a paper published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
The paper’s authors said that pursuing these solutions could change the character of the United Nations climate change conference taking place this December in Copenhagen.
“Cutting HFCs, black carbon, tropospheric ozone, and methane can buy us about 40 years before we approach the dangerous threshold of 2 degrees Celsius warming,” said co-author Professor Veerabhadran Ramanathan, a Distinguished Professor of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego.
“By targeting these short-term climate forcers, we can make a down payment on climate and provide momentum going into the December negotiations in Copenhagen,” said co-author Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “The Obama Administration and other key governments need to take up the fast-action climate agenda before it is too late.”
HFCs are powerful greenhouse gases originally developed as substitutes for ozone-depleting chemicals. They are poised to become a larger and larger part of the climate problem over the next few decades. HFCs are used primarily as refrigerants and in making insulating foam, and emissions are expected to grow dramatically due to increased demand for air conditioning in developing countries. By 2050, HFC emissions could equal up to 19 percent of global CO2 emissions under business-as-usual scenarios. The good news, the paper points out, is that a binding legal agreement exists that can cut HFCs now — the Montreal Protocol ozone treaty — and that many alternatives to HFCs have already been developed and are on the shelf waiting for the right regulatory incentive from the Montreal Protocol to be deployed.
“The Montreal Protocol has already delayed climate change by seven to 12 years, and put the ozone layer on the path to recovery later this century,” said Dr. Mario Molina, recipient of the Nobel Prize in chemistry for his path-breaking work in 1974 that sounded the alarm on ozone-depleting CFCs. “The Montreal Protocol is critical for avoiding abrupt climate change. We have to take advantage of the proven ability of this legally binding treaty to quickly phase down HFCs.”
The small island nations of Micronesia and Mauritius submitted a joint proposal in April to phase down production and consumption of HFCs under the Montreal Protocol. North American leaders followed suit with their own joint proposal, which builds on the islands’ submission. The Montreal Protocol is an essential strategy for the island nations to achieve fast mitigation to slow sea-level rise that is already starting to destroy their countries. “We must consider all viable strategies that will help protect vulnerable island nations, in particular, those strategies that have a track record of success, such as the Montreal Protocol,” said Ambassador Masao Nakayama, Permanent Representative of the Federated States of Micronesia to the United Nations. Although the Kyoto Protocol currently addresses emissions of HFCs, it does not address production and consumption.
A neglected fast-action strategy presented in the paper is reducing black carbon soot, an aerosol produced largely from the incomplete combustion of diesel fuels and biofuels, and from biomass burning. It is now considered to be the second or third largest contributor to climate change. Black carbon is responsible for almost 50 percent of the 1.9 degrees Celsius increase in warming of the Arctic since 1890 as well as significant melting of the Himalaya-Tibetan glaciers that feed the major rivers of Asia, providing fresh water to billions of people.
Researchers consider black carbon an ideal target for achieving quick mitigation because it only remains in the atmosphere a few days to a few weeks and can be reduced by expanding the use of diesel particulate filters for vehicles and clean-burning or solar cookstoves to replace those burning dung and wood. With indoor air pollution killing 1.6 million people a year, global action to cut soot emissions would reap major benefits for both public health and climate.
“If we reduce black carbon emissions worldwide by 50 percent by fully deploying all available emissions-control technologies, we could delay the warming effects of CO2 by one to two decades and at the same time greatly improve the health of those living in heavily polluted regions,” said Dr. Ramanathan.
Like black carbon, ground level or tropospheric ozone doubles as a major climate forcer and health hazard. It also lowers crop yields. A recent study reported that ozone’s damage to crop yields in 2000 resulted in an economic loss of up to $26 billion annually. It is formed by “ozone precursor” gases such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, methane, and other hydrocarbons, many of which can be reduced by improving the efficiency of industrial combustion processes. Reducing tropospheric ozone by 50 percent could buy another decade’s worth of time for countries to start making substantial cuts in CO2.
Biochar is one of the few promising “carbon-negative” strategies that can drawdown existing concentrations of CO2. The fine-grained charcoal product is a stable form of carbon that can be plowed into soil where it remains for hundreds to thousands of years, also serving as a natural fertilizer. Biochar comes from cooking biomass waste at low temperatures with minimal oxygen — a process called pyrolisis. “The other fast-action strategies can quickly mitigate emissions, but to back away from the cliff of abrupt climate change, we need biochar,” said Zaelke.
Although most of the world is focused on CO2 in the months leading up to Copenhagen, the authors of the paper hope that policymakers will recognize the advantages of implementing these fast-action strategies to complement reductions in CO2. “These fast-action strategies will support the long-term CO2 solution by stopping near-term climate change with non-CO2 solutions,” said Dr. Stephen Andersen. “This will bring momentum to those negotiating the international agreement and the U.S. legislation.”
The paper is part of a “Tipping elements in Earth systems” special feature to be published in PNAS later this year.
“Cutting CO2 emissions is essential, but it won’t produce cooling fast enough to avoid passing tipping points for abrupt climate change,” said Zaelke. “With the world already committed to more than 2 degrees Celsius of warming, we need these fast-action strategies to put the brakes on climate change, and in the case of biochar, put us in reverse by reducing existing atmospheric concentrations of CO2.”
“We intend our paper as a call to action,” said co-author K. Madhava Sarma of the Montreal Protocol’s Technology and Economic Assessment Panel.
Title: Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions
Authors: Mario Molina, Durwood Zaelke, K. Madhava Sarma, Stephen O. Andersen, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and Donald Kaniaru
Available online: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/recent
For further information on the Montreal Protocol and its contribution to climate protection: IGSD background note on Montreal protocol: http://www.igsd.org/documents/OzoneDayPR15Sept1055am.pdf
Source: Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development
Climate’s impacts on water, health are critical challenges
Experts From U.S., China, Australia To Speak at Wilson Center
Climate change threatens water supplies from Australia to California to China. But efforts to mitigate climate may have unintended effects on health and the environment. Next week at the Woodrow Wilson Center, six climate, water, and health experts will report on these issues, and more.
On June 15th at 3 p.m., geographer Jon Barnett of the University of Melbourne (Australia) and economist Michael Hanemann of the University
of California, Berkeley, will discuss the water and climate challenges facing Australia and California — and the steps that the public and private sectors are taking to confront them. RSVP/Live Webcast: http://tinyurl.com/climatewater
On June 16th at 3 p.m., Dr. Paul Epstein of Harvard Medical School will examine the potential unintended health and environmental consequences of alternative energy options, drawing on the analysis in his latest report, “Healthy Solutions for the Low Carbon Economy.” Amanda Staudt of the National Wildlife Federation will begin by explaining climate change projections and discussing current adaptation and mitigation efforts. RSVP/Live Webcast: http://tinyurl.com/healthyclimate
On June 18th at 9 a.m., three experts will discuss China’s severe water crises. Jon Barnett of the University of Melbourne will highlight the challenges facing the Yellow River, while Kristin McDonald of the China Rivers Project will discuss the ecosystem threats to the Yangtze River. Zhang Jingjing of the Center for Legal Assistance to Pollution Victims will discuss the Center’s work representing victims of water pollution. RSVP: http://tinyurl.com/chinawatersheds
The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars is the living, national memorial to President Wilson established by Congress in 1968 and headquartered in Washington, D.C. It is a nonpartisan institution, supported by public and private funds, engaged in the study of national and world affairs. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/
Since 1994, the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program has explored the connections among environmental challenges and their links to conflict and security. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp
Since 1997, the Wilson Center’s China Environment Forum has been active in creating programming and publications to encourage dialogue among U.S. and Chinese scholars, policymakers, businesses, and nongovernmental organizations on environmental and energy challenges in China. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/cef